A lecture from Hervé Juvin
1 – The pace of change in world geopolitics is increasing. In these weeks, decades are happening. Saudi Arabia and Iran signed a diplomatic agreement, China plays the global peacebroker, the conflict in Yemen is settled in Mascate, and reconciliation between chia moslims and sunnis is of historical importance. Mexico, Egypt, Algeria, are some of so many to soon join the BRICS. Japan buys some oil from Russia, Iran as well as Syria are coming back in regional and global institutions like the Arab League or the Brics, the monopoly of the US dollar on energy trade is coming to an end, near nobody cares no more about illegitimate US sanctions, or embargos, except for the European countries. And the russian sales of oil are at a three years peak.
The European Union is nowhere to be seen in these processes to political freedom and de-américanization. The problem with Europe is its radical inability to cope with such changes, because it puts its ideology before the reality, and because it still lies under american occupation and brain-washing. Just have a look at the media puppets reacting with horror at the strong words of Président Macron or Charles Michels calling for an autonomous Europe ! The more it follows the Us, the more Europe is coming to be isolated. The outside world is laughing at the ultimate follies of « woke », transgender propaganda, drag queens in schools and transhumanism dreams. Despite its major failures, the European Union continue to lecture the outside world, but nobody still notices its lessons.
2 – For the sake of free trade, moral comfort and American safeguards, the European Union has lost anything like « strategic autonomy » or political freedom. And even common sense of its core interests. At the hands of such friends as Victoria Nuland, Nato and the likes, it is waging war in Ukraine that has nothing to do with its interests, not even with any dream of security, but makes dozens of millions of EU citizens to cross the poverty line in the wrong direction. And, as said M. Lavrov, « Europe has lost Russia ». Not a wise move for Nations in deep need of natural resources.
European Nations have absolutely no interest in the Ukraine war. Russia in the 2020’s is no more the Soviet Union, even if Poland and the Baltic States are still fighting the Soviet Empire. The US are the absolute winner of the current situation ; it costs a lot to Russia, European nations are paying a lot both to support the war effort of Ukraine, and to enforce the sanctions against Russia. And hundreds of courageous young men are dying in the armies of both countries that are demographically disappearing, in some kind of unnoticed suicide – just have a look at India, coming to be the fisrt provider of young, well-trained and willing workers to the world ! European Nations are trapped in a lasting conflict, while the US military complex is selling en-masse weapons to NATO members, and its energy sector is booming with GNL exports ( for a great deal from shale gas) to the European Union at very high and unfriendly prices, not forgetting the terror attack the US organized against Nordstream2. Everybody knows, nobody says anything. Unsolved crime, one more.
So to speak ; the European Union is fighting an enemy designed by the US, for the best US benefits, at the expense of its own citizens, military forces and strategic independance. Divide and rule is still on the air. What an achievment of so-called EU diplomacy !
3 – Geopolitics were forgotten for a long time in the EU. It was not in China, nor in India, or Russia, and in any other big game players. Who dares speak about « strategic independance » without carefully balancing interests, strength and weakenesses ? History and geography ? Cultures and cilivilizations ? Money and resources ? And industrial, financial, military and digital capabilities ?
Of course, Emmanuel Macron is right when he says ; France, and European Nations as well, has nothing to do with a war against China. and he was given good reasons not to trust the fairy tale of a democratic Taiwan fighting for its freedom, when so many members of the Taiwanese governements have so huge investments in mainland China, and when so few Taiwanese citizens are ready to die for the Kuo min Tang ! But a Président must know that nothing could be achieve without breaking the totalitarian capitalist system and its neoliberal technocracy, putting the banking and financial system under the national interest, and re-enforcing the crime of intelligence with foreign countries !
The great european mistake was to forget nearly entirely about the balance of forces and the permanent national interests. Blind to the costs of globalization, the EU turned a bling eye to the benefits of localism – reshoring industry and finance ! Unconscious about its own interests, it was unable to notice the vital interests of its allies and foes as well. Germany succeeded greatly by using the US security guarantee and US taxpayers money to compete against the US industry and accumulate enormous trade surplus, mainly due to cheap energy supply from Russia. Such a deal was obviously not sustainable – to compete against the US with the US money ! Trump said « no », and Biden put an end to it. And the European Union is to pay a huge price for it, even going to desintegrate itself – if not the Germans, who will pay for the EU structural public deficits ? Who agrees to pour more euros in the decaying, corrupted and poisonous Ukrainian black hole ?
4 – At the end of the day, nobody knows where this confict could end. The Ukrainian army has already lost the war. Nato didn’t win it. And Russia is waging an off-limits war, with the help of « the Rest ».
What is at stake now is far more that far away defeats or victories – Afghanistan, Libya, who cares ? What is at stake is the wealth, the civilization, and the moral comfort of the West. And it is also one third of their average purchasing power, til now under US dollar’ steroïds ! Vital interest, if any. The US and their British accomplices have always deployed the ultimate violence when their vital interests are at stake – who can stand against that ? We must know ; the warmongers are not the usual suspects, Russia, China, not even the radical Islam. In fact, any non aligned countries, – like India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Mexico or Argentina as well, face permanent encirclement, American constraints and open aggression when resisting. Just have a look upon Serbia, Lybia, Palestine, Irak, Iran, Afghanistan, Syria and their current situation after the US operations ! Up to this year, to resist the rule of the US is to go to the death row -assets seized, regime changed, mass killings, and ultimate poverty and decay.
The double standard is coming to an end. With the growing threats against the US dollar and the financialization of the world, with most of the world GDP coming out of the grip of the US and British dominance, nobody knows what could be the answer of these, but it could put the world on the edge of a third world war.
5 – Last year, in the prestigious « Egmont Palace » in Brussels, I launched a global initiative for » Good strategic neighboroud » between non-aligned countries. The real issue is to bring the US at the negociation table on a par basis, not as a lasting hyperpower. To achieve peace between Nations and civilisations, we have to convince the US people and their representants that their best interest is now to fully participate in a multipolar world, not to stay stranded in the outdated dream of a sole hyperpower – with such costs and risks attached. What is good for world’s peace will also be good for the US taxpayer and consumer.
To achieve that, we must engage our US allies and other countries alike in issues of main concern for all, like environmental issues, social improvement, local empowerment, and the control of the way innovative apprentices use science.
European Nations have to regain traction in the US public debate and opînion, they have to convince a distressed american people that a peace economy is far better for them all than a weaponized economy.
They have to renew the European system of payments of the 50’s, out of reach of others, the US, China or Russia as well.
They have to localism, reshoring capabilities in each strategic domain, and building their own territorial and cultural answers to global issues, like climate change, water scarcity or chemical pollution.
And they have to reign in digital sorcerers, and biological witches as well – the big techs, AI, digital identity, digital currency and digital medicine never have to take control of our desires and our will.
Our ultimate goal is to rebuild military strenght, to rebalance the world powers, so that any one with an alliance with the European Nations could counterbalance any attempt to rule the world for a sole power. This is the prominent role Europe could play for peace – to make itself the balancing power against any hyperpower.
I talked about Europe, the Union and its missed opportunities. At the end of my day, seems to me that we are close to the long term policy of India. Balance, equilibrium, self restraint, and safe distance to any conflict. I hope the European Union to take its share of this fight for peace, mutual understanding and respect for each other India has so well continuously managed.
Delhi, the 5th of April 2023, revisited the 13th.